Rimozione completa della componente Machine Learning
Sono state eliminate tutte le dipendenze, file sorgente e script SQL relativi al machine learning (Microsoft.ML, Horses\ML, procedure e tabelle per rating automatico). Il calcolo dei rating ora è deterministico. Aggiornato il parsing JSON in Main.cs con Newtonsoft.Json. Il progetto risulta semplificato e più focalizzato sulle funzionalità manuali.
This commit is contained in:
@@ -58,42 +58,6 @@
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<Reference Include="CsvHelper, Version=33.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=8c4a6d608ce8f59c, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\CsvHelper.33.0.1\lib\net481\CsvHelper.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.Bcl.AsyncInterfaces, Version=10.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.Bcl.AsyncInterfaces.10.0.0-preview.4.25258.110\lib\net462\Microsoft.Bcl.AsyncInterfaces.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.Bcl.HashCode, Version=6.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.Bcl.HashCode.6.0.0\lib\net461\Microsoft.Bcl.HashCode.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.Bcl.Numerics, Version=10.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.Bcl.Numerics.10.0.0-preview.4.25258.110\lib\net462\Microsoft.Bcl.Numerics.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.Core, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.Core.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.CpuMath, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.CpuMath.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.CpuMath.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.Data, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.Data.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.DataView, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.DataView.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.DataView.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.FastTree, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.FastTree.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.FastTree.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.KMeansClustering, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.KMeansClustering.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.PCA, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.PCA.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.StandardTrainers, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.StandardTrainers.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Microsoft.ML.Transforms, Version=1.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=cc7b13ffcd2ddd51, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Microsoft.ML.5.0.0-preview.1.25127.4\lib\netstandard2.0\Microsoft.ML.Transforms.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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<Reference Include="Newtonsoft.Json, Version=13.0.0.0, Culture=neutral, PublicKeyToken=30ad4fe6b2a6aeed, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
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<HintPath>..\packages\Newtonsoft.Json.13.0.3\lib\net45\Newtonsoft.Json.dll</HintPath>
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</Reference>
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@@ -194,10 +158,6 @@
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<Compile Include="HorseRacing\Main.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\Calculator.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\Files\Maps\Punters.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\ML\HorseRacePrediction.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\ML\MachineLearningService.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\ML\ModelInput.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Horses\ML\ModelOutput.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Manager\API.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Manager\FileReader.cs" />
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<Compile Include="Manager\Database.cs" />
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@@ -215,7 +175,6 @@
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<AutoGen>True</AutoGen>
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<DependentUpon>Resources.resx</DependentUpon>
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</Compile>
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<None Include="Dati\Result.csv" />
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<None Include="packages.config" />
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<None Include="Properties\Settings.settings">
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<Generator>SettingsSingleFileGenerator</Generator>
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@@ -231,11 +190,7 @@
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<None Include="App.config" />
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</ItemGroup>
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<ItemGroup>
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<Content Include="Query\ScanFavoriteHorseWeights.sql" />
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<Content Include="Query\PredictionScanResults.sql" />
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<Content Include="Query\GetFavoriteHorses.sql" />
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<Content Include="Query\GetValidHorses.sql" />
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<Content Include="Query\Races.sql" />
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<Folder Include="Themes\" />
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</ItemGroup>
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<Import Project="$(MSBuildToolsPath)\Microsoft.CSharp.targets" />
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<Import Project="..\packages\System.ValueTuple.4.6.1\build\net471\System.ValueTuple.targets" Condition="Exists('..\packages\System.ValueTuple.4.6.1\build\net471\System.ValueTuple.targets')" />
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File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ using System.Threading.Tasks;
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using RestSharp;
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using System.Text.Json;
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using System.Text.Json.Nodes;
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using Newtonsoft.Json.Linq;
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using System.Data.SqlClient;
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namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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@@ -317,7 +318,13 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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{
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try
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{
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var jsonObject = JsonNode.Parse(jsonResponse);
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// Parse JSON using System.Text.Json and convert to Newtonsoft.JToken where needed
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var jsonNode = JsonNode.Parse(jsonResponse);
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var jsonObject = JObject.Parse(jsonNode.ToJsonString());
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// Helper to enumerate array-like tokens (compat replacement for JsonNode.AsArray())
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var responseArray = jsonObject["response"] as JArray;
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Func<JToken, IEnumerable<JToken>> asArray = t => t is JArray a ? a : (t != null ? t.Children() : Enumerable.Empty<JToken>());
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_database.ExecuteTransactionalQuery("l'elaborazione dei dati calcistici", (connection, transaction) =>
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{
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@@ -327,7 +334,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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((Manager.Database)_database).DisableAllConstraints(connection, transaction);
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// FASE 1: Inserisci le leghe
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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var league = responseItem["league"];
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if (league != null && league["id"] != null)
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@@ -337,11 +344,11 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// FASE 2: Inserisci i bookmakers e i tipi di scommessa
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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if (responseItem["bookmakers"] != null)
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{
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foreach (var bookmaker in responseItem["bookmakers"].AsArray())
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foreach (var bookmaker in asArray(responseItem["bookmakers"]))
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{
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if (bookmaker["id"] != null)
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{
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@@ -350,7 +357,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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// Tipi di scommessa
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if (bookmaker["bets"] != null)
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{
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foreach (var bet in bookmaker["bets"].AsArray())
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foreach (var bet in asArray(bookmaker["bets"]))
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{
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if (bet["id"] != null && bet["name"] != null)
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{
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@@ -364,7 +371,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// FASE 3: Inserisci le squadre (senza relazione con fixture)
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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var teams = responseItem["teams"];
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if (teams != null && teams["home"] != null && teams["away"] != null &&
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@@ -376,7 +383,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// FASE 4: Inserisci i fixture e venue
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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var fixture = responseItem["fixture"];
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if (fixture != null && fixture["id"] != null)
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@@ -386,7 +393,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// FASE 5: Inserisci relazioni tra entità e dati dipendenti
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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int? fixtureId = null;
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try
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@@ -394,7 +401,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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var fixture = responseItem["fixture"];
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if (fixture != null && fixture["id"] != null)
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{
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fixtureId = fixture["id"].GetValue<int>();
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fixtureId = fixture["id"].Value<int>();
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// Relazioni fixture-team
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var teams = responseItem["teams"];
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@@ -408,7 +415,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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var league = responseItem["league"];
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if (league != null && league["id"] != null)
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{
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int leagueId = league["id"].GetValue<int>();
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int leagueId = league["id"].Value<int>();
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_fixtureLeagueRepository.Upsert(connection, transaction, fixtureId.Value, leagueId, league);
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}
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@@ -435,7 +442,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// FASE 6: Inserisci dati che richiedono fixture e teams: quote e previsioni
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foreach (var responseItem in jsonObject["response"].AsArray())
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foreach (var responseItem in asArray(jsonObject["response"]))
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{
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int? fixtureId = null;
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try
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@@ -443,7 +450,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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var fixture = responseItem["fixture"];
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if (fixture != null && fixture["id"] != null)
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{
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fixtureId = fixture["id"].GetValue<int>();
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fixtureId = fixture["id"].Value<int>();
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// Quote
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if (responseItem["bookmakers"] != null)
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@@ -478,15 +485,15 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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}
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// Head-to-head
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if (predictions["h2h"] != null && predictions["h2h"].AsArray().Any())
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if (predictions["h2h"] != null && asArray(predictions["h2h"]).Any())
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{
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_h2hRepository.DeleteForPrediction(connection, predictionId.Value);
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foreach (var h2hFixture in predictions["h2h"].AsArray())
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foreach (var h2hFixture in asArray(predictions["h2h"]))
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{
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if (h2hFixture["fixture"] != null && h2hFixture["fixture"]["id"] != null)
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{
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_h2hRepository.Insert(connection, predictionId.Value, h2hFixture["fixture"]["id"].GetValue<int>());
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_h2hRepository.Insert(connection, predictionId.Value, h2hFixture["fixture"]["id"].Value<int>());
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}
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}
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}
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@@ -498,7 +505,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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// Home team stats
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if (teams["home"] != null && teams["home"]["id"] != null && predictions["teams"]["home"] != null)
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{
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int homeTeamId = teams["home"]["id"].GetValue<int>();
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int homeTeamId = teams["home"]["id"].Value<int>();
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if (predictions["teams"]["home"]["team"] != null)
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{
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@@ -516,7 +523,7 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Football
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// Away team stats
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if (teams["away"] != null && teams["away"]["id"] != null && predictions["teams"]["away"] != null)
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{
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int awayTeamId = teams["away"]["id"].GetValue<int>();
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int awayTeamId = teams["away"]["id"].Value<int>();
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if (predictions["teams"]["away"]["team"] != null)
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{
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@@ -5,17 +5,15 @@ using System.IO;
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using System.Linq;
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using System.Text;
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using System.Threading.Tasks;
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using HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.ML;
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namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses
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{
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internal class Calculator
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{
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private readonly MachineLearningService _mlService;
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public Calculator()
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{
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_mlService = new MachineLearningService();
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// Machine learning service removed or unavailable in this build.
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// Keep constructor minimal.
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}
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public int CalculateRating1(DataRow row)
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@@ -168,52 +166,15 @@ namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses
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/// </summary>
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public int CalculateMLRating(DataRow row)
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{
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// Machine learning component removed: fall back to deterministic rating
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try
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{
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// Prepara l'input per il modello ML
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var input = new ModelInput
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{
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Age = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Age"),
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HandicapRating = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Handicap Rating"),
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Weight = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Weight"),
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WeightCarried = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Weight Carried"),
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Barrier = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Barrier"),
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CareerRuns = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Career Runs"),
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CareerWins = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Career Wins"),
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CareerStrikeRate = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Career Strike Rate"),
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CareerROI = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Career ROI"),
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ThisTrackRuns = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Track Runs"),
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ThisTrackWins = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Track Wins"),
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ThisTrackStrikeRate = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Track Strike Rate"),
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ThisDistanceRuns = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Distance Runs"),
|
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ThisDistanceWins = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Distance Wins"),
|
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ThisDistanceStrikeRate = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "This Distance Strike Rate"),
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JockeyLast100Wins = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Jockey Last 100 Wins"),
|
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JockeyLast100StrikeRate = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Jockey Last 100 Strike Rate"),
|
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TrainerLast100Wins = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Trainer Last 100 Wins"),
|
||||
TrainerLast100StrikeRate = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Trainer Last 100 Strike Rate"),
|
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BestFixedOdds = GetFloatValueOrDefault(row, "Best Fixed Odds")
|
||||
};
|
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|
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// Effettua la previsione usando il modello ML
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||||
var output = _mlService.PredictFinishPosition(input);
|
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|
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// Il rating ML è inversamente proporzionale alla posizione prevista
|
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// Migliore è la posizione prevista (più vicina a 1), più alto sarà il rating
|
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double mlRating = 100 * (1.0 / Math.Max(1, output.PredictedPosition));
|
||||
|
||||
// Aggiusta il rating in base alla probabilità di vittoria
|
||||
mlRating = mlRating * (0.6 + (output.WinProbability * 0.4));
|
||||
|
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return (int)Math.Min(100, Math.Max(0, mlRating));
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch (Exception ex)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"Errore nel calcolo del rating ML: {ex.Message}");
|
||||
|
||||
// In caso di errore, ritorna un rating basato sul metodo standard
|
||||
return CalculateRating1(row);
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch
|
||||
{
|
||||
return 0;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
private double GetValueOrDefault(DataRow row, string columnName)
|
||||
|
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@@ -1,49 +0,0 @@
|
||||
using System;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.ML
|
||||
{
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Classe che contiene il risultato della previsione per un singolo cavallo in una corsa.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public class HorseRacePrediction
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Informazioni identificative
|
||||
public string HorseId { get; set; }
|
||||
public string HorseName { get; set; }
|
||||
public string RaceMeeting { get; set; }
|
||||
public int RaceNumber { get; set; }
|
||||
public DateTime RaceDate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Risultati della previsione
|
||||
public float PredictedPosition { get; set; }
|
||||
public float WinProbability { get; set; }
|
||||
public float PlaceProbability { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Rating ML calcolato (combinazione di probabilità e altri fattori)
|
||||
public int MLRating { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Quota attuale per valutazione valore
|
||||
public float CurrentOdds { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Valore calcolato (rapporto tra probabilità e quota)
|
||||
public float Value => WinProbability > 0 ? (WinProbability * 100) / (1 / CurrentOdds) : 0;
|
||||
|
||||
// Indicazione se questo cavallo è considerato di valore
|
||||
public bool IsValueBet => Value > 1.1f;
|
||||
|
||||
// Posizione reale del cavallo
|
||||
public string ActualPosition { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Indicazione se la previsione è accurata
|
||||
public bool IsAccuratePrediction { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Metodo per valutare l'accuratezza della previsione
|
||||
public void EvaluateAccuracy()
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(ActualPosition) && int.TryParse(ActualPosition, out int actualPos))
|
||||
{
|
||||
IsAccuratePrediction = Math.Abs(actualPos - PredictedPosition) <= 0.5;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -1,573 +0,0 @@
|
||||
using Microsoft.ML;
|
||||
using Microsoft.ML.Data;
|
||||
using System;
|
||||
using System.Collections.Generic;
|
||||
using System.Data;
|
||||
using System.IO;
|
||||
using System.Linq;
|
||||
using System.Data.SqlClient;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.ML
|
||||
{
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Servizio principale per l'implementazione del machine learning
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public class MachineLearningService
|
||||
{
|
||||
private readonly MLContext _mlContext;
|
||||
private ITransformer _trainedModel;
|
||||
private readonly string _modelPath = Path.Combine(AppDomain.CurrentDomain.BaseDirectory, "Models", "HorseRaceModel.zip");
|
||||
|
||||
public string ConnectionString { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
public MachineLearningService(string connectionString = null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
_mlContext = new MLContext(seed: 42);
|
||||
Directory.CreateDirectory(Path.GetDirectoryName(_modelPath));
|
||||
ConnectionString = connectionString;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Carica un modello ML esistente da file
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public void LoadModel()
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (!File.Exists(_modelPath))
|
||||
throw new FileNotFoundException($"[ML] Modello non trovato: {_modelPath}");
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Caricamento modello da: {_modelPath}");
|
||||
_trainedModel = _mlContext.Model.Load(_modelPath, out _);
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Modello ML caricato correttamente.");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Salva il modello addestrato su file
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public void SaveModel(ITransformer model)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Salvataggio modello in: {_modelPath}");
|
||||
_mlContext.Model.Save(model, null, _modelPath);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Ottiene i dati di training dal database e addestra un modello ML
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public void TrainModel(string connectionString)
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Imposta a 'true' per ricreare sempre il modello (default).
|
||||
// Per NON ricreare il modello ad ogni esecuzione, commenta la riga seguente:
|
||||
bool alwaysRetrain = true;
|
||||
// bool alwaysRetrain = false;
|
||||
|
||||
if (!alwaysRetrain && File.Exists(_modelPath))
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Modello già esistente. Caricamento modello da file...");
|
||||
LoadModel();
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Inizio caricamento dati di training dal database...");
|
||||
var trainingData = LoadTrainingDataFromDatabase(connectionString);
|
||||
|
||||
if (trainingData.Count == 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML][ERRORE] Nessun dato di training disponibile nel database.");
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Numero record caricati per il training: {trainingData.Count}");
|
||||
|
||||
var dataView = _mlContext.Data.LoadFromEnumerable(trainingData);
|
||||
|
||||
// Suddividi i dati in train e test (80% train, 20% test)
|
||||
var split = _mlContext.Data.TrainTestSplit(dataView, testFraction: 0.2, seed: 42);
|
||||
|
||||
// Costruisci la pipeline di training
|
||||
var pipeline = _mlContext.Transforms.Concatenate("Features",
|
||||
"Age", "HandicapRating", "Weight", "WeightCarried", "Barrier",
|
||||
"CareerRuns", "CareerWins", "CareerStrikeRate", "CareerROI",
|
||||
"ThisTrackRuns", "ThisTrackWins", "ThisTrackStrikeRate",
|
||||
"ThisDistanceRuns", "ThisDistanceWins", "ThisDistanceStrikeRate",
|
||||
"JockeyLast100Wins", "JockeyLast100StrikeRate",
|
||||
"TrainerLast100Wins", "TrainerLast100StrikeRate", "BestFixedOdds",
|
||||
"Rating1", "Rating2", "Rating3", "Rating4", "Rating5"
|
||||
// Qui puoi aggiungere nuove feature create o derivate
|
||||
)
|
||||
.Append(_mlContext.Transforms.NormalizeMinMax("Features"))
|
||||
.Append(_mlContext.Regression.Trainers.FastTree(
|
||||
labelColumnName: "FinishPosition",
|
||||
featureColumnName: "Features",
|
||||
numberOfTrees: 200, // Aumentato per maggiore accuratezza
|
||||
numberOfLeaves: 32, // Più foglie per maggiore complessità
|
||||
minimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 5, // Più sensibile ai dettagli
|
||||
learningRate: 0.15f // Puoi sperimentare anche questo parametro
|
||||
));
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Inizio addestramento del modello...");
|
||||
_trainedModel = pipeline.Fit(split.TrainSet);
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Addestramento completato.");
|
||||
|
||||
// Valuta sul training set
|
||||
var trainMetrics = _mlContext.Regression.Evaluate(_trainedModel.Transform(split.TrainSet), labelColumnName: "FinishPosition");
|
||||
// Valuta sul test set
|
||||
var testMetrics = _mlContext.Regression.Evaluate(_trainedModel.Transform(split.TestSet), labelColumnName: "FinishPosition");
|
||||
|
||||
// Cross-validation
|
||||
var cvResults = _mlContext.Regression.CrossValidate(data: dataView, estimator: pipeline, numberOfFolds: 5, labelColumnName: "FinishPosition");
|
||||
var avgRSquared = cvResults.Average(fold => fold.Metrics.RSquared);
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"RSquared medio (cross-validation): {avgRSquared:F4}");
|
||||
|
||||
SaveModel(_trainedModel);
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Modello salvato in: {_modelPath}");
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Metriche di valutazione (TRAIN):");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - RSquared: {trainMetrics.RSquared:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - MAE: {trainMetrics.MeanAbsoluteError:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - MSE: {trainMetrics.MeanSquaredError:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - RMSE: {trainMetrics.RootMeanSquaredError:F4}");
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("[ML] Metriche di valutazione (TEST):");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - RSquared: {testMetrics.RSquared:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - MAE: {testMetrics.MeanAbsoluteError:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - MSE: {testMetrics.MeanSquaredError:F4}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] - RMSE: {testMetrics.RootMeanSquaredError:F4}");
|
||||
|
||||
var predictions = _trainedModel.Transform(split.TestSet);
|
||||
var actuals = _mlContext.Data.CreateEnumerable<ModelInput>(split.TestSet, false).ToList();
|
||||
var preds = _mlContext.Data.CreateEnumerable<ModelOutput>(predictions, false).ToList();
|
||||
|
||||
int top3Correct = actuals.Zip(preds, (a, p) => (a, p))
|
||||
.Count(x => x.a.FinishPosition <= 3 && x.p.PredictedPosition <= 3);
|
||||
double accuracyTop3 = (double)top3Correct / actuals.Count;
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"Percentuale cavalli previsti nei primi 3: {accuracyTop3:P2}");
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch (Exception ex)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML][ERRORE] Errore durante l'addestramento del modello: {ex.Message}");
|
||||
throw;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Carica i dati di training dal database
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private List<ModelInput> LoadTrainingDataFromDatabase(string connectionString)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var trainingData = new List<ModelInput>();
|
||||
var calculator = new HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.Calculator();
|
||||
int skippedRows = 0;
|
||||
int rating1Errors = 0, rating2Errors = 0, rating3Errors = 0, rating4Errors = 0, rating5Errors = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
try
|
||||
{
|
||||
using (var connection = new SqlConnection(connectionString))
|
||||
{
|
||||
connection.Open();
|
||||
|
||||
string query = @"
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
CASE WHEN ISNUMERIC(FinishResult) = 1 THEN CAST(FinishResult AS FLOAT) ELSE 999 END AS FinishPosition,
|
||||
COALESCE(Age, 0) AS Age,
|
||||
COALESCE(HandicapRating, 0) AS HandicapRating,
|
||||
COALESCE(Weight, 0) AS Weight,
|
||||
COALESCE(WeightCarried, 0) AS WeightCarried,
|
||||
COALESCE(Barrier, 0) AS Barrier,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerRuns, 0) AS CareerRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerWins, 0) AS CareerWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerStrikeRate, 0) AS CareerStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerROI, 0) AS CareerROI,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackRuns, 0) AS ThisTrackRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackWins, 0) AS ThisTrackWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackStrikeRate, 0) AS ThisTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceRuns, 0) AS ThisDistanceRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceWins, 0) AS ThisDistanceWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceStrikeRate, 0) AS ThisDistanceStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(JockeyLast100Wins, 0) AS JockeyLast100Wins,
|
||||
COALESCE(JockeyLast100StrikeRate, 0) AS JockeyLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(TrainerLast100Wins, 0) AS TrainerLast100Wins,
|
||||
COALESCE(TrainerLast100StrikeRate, 0) AS TrainerLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(BestFixedOdds, 0) AS BestFixedOdds,
|
||||
COALESCE(Gender, '') AS Gender
|
||||
FROM Races
|
||||
WHERE ISNUMERIC(FinishResult) = 1
|
||||
AND FinishResult IS NOT NULL
|
||||
AND FinishResult <> ''";
|
||||
|
||||
using (var command = new SqlCommand(query, connection))
|
||||
{
|
||||
using (var adapter = new SqlDataAdapter(command))
|
||||
{
|
||||
var table = new System.Data.DataTable();
|
||||
adapter.Fill(table);
|
||||
|
||||
foreach (System.Data.DataRow row in table.Rows)
|
||||
{
|
||||
try {
|
||||
float finishPos = Convert.ToSingle(row["FinishPosition"]);
|
||||
if (finishPos >= 15 || finishPos <= 0) {
|
||||
skippedRows++;
|
||||
continue;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Calcola i rating con gestione degli errori e sostituzione con valori predefiniti
|
||||
float rating1 = 0, rating2 = 0, rating3 = 0, rating4 = 0, rating5 = 0;
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
rating1 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating1(row);
|
||||
if (float.IsNaN(rating1) || float.IsInfinity(rating1)) {
|
||||
rating1 = 0;
|
||||
rating1Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (Exception) {
|
||||
rating1Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
rating2 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating2(row);
|
||||
if (float.IsNaN(rating2) || float.IsInfinity(rating2)) {
|
||||
rating2 = 0;
|
||||
rating2Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (Exception) {
|
||||
rating2Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
rating3 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating3(row);
|
||||
if (float.IsNaN(rating3) || float.IsInfinity(rating3)) {
|
||||
rating3 = 0;
|
||||
rating3Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (Exception) {
|
||||
rating3Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
rating4 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating4(row);
|
||||
if (float.IsNaN(rating4) || float.IsInfinity(rating4)) {
|
||||
rating4 = 0;
|
||||
rating4Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (Exception) {
|
||||
rating4Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
rating5 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating5(row);
|
||||
if (float.IsNaN(rating5) || float.IsInfinity(rating5)) {
|
||||
rating5 = 0;
|
||||
rating5Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
} catch (Exception) {
|
||||
rating5Errors++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Usa SafeConvert per tutte le conversioni
|
||||
trainingData.Add(new ModelInput
|
||||
{
|
||||
FinishPosition = finishPos,
|
||||
Age = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["Age"]),
|
||||
HandicapRating = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["HandicapRating"]),
|
||||
Weight = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["Weight"]),
|
||||
WeightCarried = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["WeightCarried"]),
|
||||
Barrier = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["Barrier"]),
|
||||
CareerRuns = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["CareerRuns"]),
|
||||
CareerWins = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["CareerWins"]),
|
||||
CareerStrikeRate = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["CareerStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
CareerROI = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["CareerROI"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackRuns = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisTrackRuns"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackWins = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisTrackWins"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackStrikeRate = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisTrackStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceRuns = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisDistanceRuns"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceWins = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisDistanceWins"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceStrikeRate = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["ThisDistanceStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
JockeyLast100Wins = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["JockeyLast100Wins"]),
|
||||
JockeyLast100StrikeRate = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["JockeyLast100StrikeRate"]),
|
||||
TrainerLast100Wins = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["TrainerLast100Wins"]),
|
||||
TrainerLast100StrikeRate = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["TrainerLast100StrikeRate"]),
|
||||
BestFixedOdds = SafeConvert.ToSingle(row["BestFixedOdds"]),
|
||||
Rating1 = rating1,
|
||||
Rating2 = rating2,
|
||||
Rating3 = rating3,
|
||||
Rating4 = rating4,
|
||||
Rating5 = rating5
|
||||
});
|
||||
} catch (Exception ex) {
|
||||
skippedRows++;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Record letti dal database: {table.Rows.Count}");
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Record saltati: {skippedRows}");
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch (Exception ex)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML][ERRORE] Errore durante il caricamento dei dati dal database: {ex.Message}");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML] Caricati {trainingData.Count} record per l'addestramento.");
|
||||
return trainingData;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Costruisce la pipeline di addestramento del modello
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private IEstimator<ITransformer> BuildTrainingPipeline()
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Crea la pipeline per addestramento
|
||||
// 1. Concatena tutte le feature in un unico vettore
|
||||
// 2. Normalizza i dati di input
|
||||
// 3. Addestra un modello FastTree con FastTreeRegressionTrainer
|
||||
var pipeline = _mlContext.Transforms.Concatenate("Features",
|
||||
"Age", "HandicapRating", "Weight", "WeightCarried", "Barrier",
|
||||
"CareerRuns", "CareerWins", "CareerStrikeRate", "CareerROI",
|
||||
"ThisTrackRuns", "ThisTrackWins", "ThisTrackStrikeRate",
|
||||
"ThisDistanceRuns", "ThisDistanceWins", "ThisDistanceStrikeRate",
|
||||
"JockeyLast100Wins", "JockeyLast100StrikeRate",
|
||||
"TrainerLast100Wins", "TrainerLast100StrikeRate", "BestFixedOdds",
|
||||
"Rating1", "Rating2", "Rating3", "Rating4", "Rating5")
|
||||
.Append(_mlContext.Transforms.NormalizeMinMax("Features"))
|
||||
.Append(_mlContext.Regression.Trainers.FastTree(
|
||||
labelColumnName: "FinishPosition",
|
||||
featureColumnName: "Features",
|
||||
numberOfTrees: 100,
|
||||
numberOfLeaves: 20,
|
||||
minimumExampleCountPerLeaf: 10));
|
||||
|
||||
return pipeline;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Valuta il modello addestrato
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private RegressionMetrics EvaluateModel(IDataView dataView, ITransformer model)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var predictions = model.Transform(dataView);
|
||||
return _mlContext.Regression.Evaluate(predictions, labelColumnName: "FinishPosition");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Predice la posizione finale per un cavallo
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public ModelOutput PredictFinishPosition(ModelInput input)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (_trainedModel == null)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine("Il modello non è stato addestrato o caricato.");
|
||||
|
||||
// Restituisci un oggetto vuoto invece di lanciare un'eccezione
|
||||
return new ModelOutput
|
||||
{
|
||||
PredictedPosition = 0,
|
||||
WinProbability = 0,
|
||||
PlaceProbability = 0
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Crea il motore di previsione
|
||||
var predEngine = _mlContext.Model.CreatePredictionEngine<ModelInput, ModelOutput>(_trainedModel);
|
||||
|
||||
// Effettua la previsione
|
||||
var prediction = predEngine.Predict(input);
|
||||
|
||||
// Calcola le probabilità (implementazione semplificata)
|
||||
prediction.WinProbability = CalculateWinProbability(prediction.PredictedPosition);
|
||||
prediction.PlaceProbability = CalculatePlaceProbability(prediction.PredictedPosition);
|
||||
|
||||
return prediction;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Calcola la probabilità di vittoria in base alla posizione prevista
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private float CalculateWinProbability(float predictedPosition)
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Implementazione semplice: più il valore è vicino a 1, maggiore è la probabilità di vittoria
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 1) return 0.9f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 2) return 0.5f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 3) return 0.3f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 5) return 0.1f;
|
||||
return 0.05f;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Calcola la probabilità di piazzamento (primi 3) in base alla posizione prevista
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private float CalculatePlaceProbability(float predictedPosition)
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Implementazione semplice: più il valore è vicino a 1, 2 o 3, maggiore è la probabilità di piazzamento
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 1) return 0.95f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 2) return 0.85f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 3) return 0.75f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 4) return 0.4f;
|
||||
if (predictedPosition <= 6) return 0.2f;
|
||||
return 0.1f;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Analizza un'intera corsa e prevede il risultato per tutti i cavalli
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public List<HorseRacePrediction> PredictRaceResult(string meeting, int raceNumber, DateTime raceDate, string connectionString)
|
||||
{
|
||||
var predictions = new List<HorseRacePrediction>();
|
||||
var calculator = new HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.Calculator(); // Inizializza il calculator qui
|
||||
|
||||
try
|
||||
{
|
||||
using (var connection = new SqlConnection(connectionString))
|
||||
{
|
||||
connection.Open();
|
||||
string query = @"
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
Num, HorseName,
|
||||
COALESCE(Age, 0) AS Age,
|
||||
COALESCE(HandicapRating, 0) AS HandicapRating,
|
||||
COALESCE(Weight, 0) AS Weight,
|
||||
COALESCE(WeightCarried, 0) AS WeightCarried,
|
||||
COALESCE(Barrier, 0) AS Barrier,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerRuns, 0) AS CareerRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerWins, 0) AS CareerWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerStrikeRate, 0) AS CareerStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(CareerROI, 0) AS CareerROI,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackRuns, 0) AS ThisTrackRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackWins, 0) AS ThisTrackWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisTrackStrikeRate, 0) AS ThisTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceRuns, 0) AS ThisDistanceRuns,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceWins, 0) AS ThisDistanceWins,
|
||||
COALESCE(ThisDistanceStrikeRate, 0) AS ThisDistanceStrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(JockeyLast100Wins, 0) AS JockeyLast100Wins,
|
||||
COALESCE(JockeyLast100StrikeRate, 0) AS JockeyLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(TrainerLast100Wins, 0) AS TrainerLast100Wins,
|
||||
COALESCE(TrainerLast100StrikeRate, 0) AS TrainerLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
COALESCE(BestFixedOdds, 0) AS BestFixedOdds,
|
||||
COALESCE(Gender, '') AS Gender
|
||||
FROM Races
|
||||
WHERE Meeting = @Meeting AND Race = @Race AND Data = @Data";
|
||||
|
||||
using (var command = new SqlCommand(query, connection))
|
||||
{
|
||||
command.Parameters.AddWithValue("@Meeting", meeting);
|
||||
command.Parameters.AddWithValue("@Race", raceNumber);
|
||||
command.Parameters.AddWithValue("@Data", raceDate);
|
||||
|
||||
using (var reader = command.ExecuteReader())
|
||||
{
|
||||
while (reader.Read())
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Converti i dati del reader in una DataRow per usare il calculator
|
||||
DataTable dt = new DataTable();
|
||||
DataRow row = dt.NewRow();
|
||||
for (int i = 0; i < reader.FieldCount; i++)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (!dt.Columns.Contains(reader.GetName(i)))
|
||||
dt.Columns.Add(reader.GetName(i));
|
||||
row[reader.GetName(i)] = reader.GetValue(i);
|
||||
}
|
||||
dt.Rows.Add(row);
|
||||
|
||||
// Prepara l'input per il modello
|
||||
var input = new ModelInput
|
||||
{
|
||||
Age = Convert.ToSingle(reader["Age"]),
|
||||
HandicapRating = Convert.ToSingle(reader["HandicapRating"]),
|
||||
Weight = Convert.ToSingle(reader["Weight"]),
|
||||
WeightCarried = Convert.ToSingle(reader["WeightCarried"]),
|
||||
Barrier = Convert.ToSingle(reader["Barrier"]),
|
||||
CareerRuns = Convert.ToSingle(reader["CareerRuns"]),
|
||||
CareerWins = Convert.ToSingle(reader["CareerWins"]),
|
||||
CareerStrikeRate = Convert.ToSingle(reader["CareerStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
CareerROI = Convert.ToSingle(reader["CareerROI"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackRuns = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisTrackRuns"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackWins = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisTrackWins"]),
|
||||
ThisTrackStrikeRate = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisTrackStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceRuns = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisDistanceRuns"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceWins = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisDistanceWins"]),
|
||||
ThisDistanceStrikeRate = Convert.ToSingle(reader["ThisDistanceStrikeRate"]),
|
||||
JockeyLast100Wins = Convert.ToSingle(reader["JockeyLast100Wins"]),
|
||||
JockeyLast100StrikeRate = Convert.ToSingle(reader["JockeyLast100StrikeRate"]),
|
||||
TrainerLast100Wins = Convert.ToSingle(reader["TrainerLast100Wins"]),
|
||||
TrainerLast100StrikeRate = Convert.ToSingle(reader["TrainerLast100StrikeRate"]),
|
||||
BestFixedOdds = Convert.ToSingle(reader["BestFixedOdds"]),
|
||||
// Aggiungi i rating calcolati
|
||||
Rating1 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating1(row),
|
||||
Rating2 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating2(row),
|
||||
Rating3 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating3(row),
|
||||
Rating4 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating4(row),
|
||||
Rating5 = (float)calculator.CalculateRating5(row)
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// Effettua la previsione
|
||||
var output = PredictFinishPosition(input);
|
||||
|
||||
// Calcola un rating ML basato sulla posizione prevista
|
||||
int mlRating = CalculateMLRating(output);
|
||||
|
||||
// Aggiungi alla lista delle previsioni
|
||||
predictions.Add(new HorseRacePrediction
|
||||
{
|
||||
HorseId = Convert.ToString(reader["Num"]),
|
||||
HorseName = Convert.ToString(reader["HorseName"]),
|
||||
RaceMeeting = meeting,
|
||||
RaceNumber = raceNumber,
|
||||
RaceDate = raceDate,
|
||||
PredictedPosition = output.PredictedPosition,
|
||||
WinProbability = output.WinProbability,
|
||||
PlaceProbability = output.PlaceProbability,
|
||||
MLRating = mlRating,
|
||||
CurrentOdds = Convert.ToSingle(reader["BestFixedOdds"])
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Ordina per posizione prevista (dal migliore al peggiore)
|
||||
return predictions.OrderBy(p => p.PredictedPosition).ToList();
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch (Exception ex)
|
||||
{
|
||||
Console.WriteLine($"[ML][ERRORE] Errore durante la previsione della corsa: {ex.Message}");
|
||||
return predictions;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Calcola un rating ML basato sulla posizione prevista e altre metriche
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
private int CalculateMLRating(ModelOutput output)
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Formula per il rating ML (convertito in un numero intero da 0 a 100)
|
||||
double baseRating = (1 / Math.Max(0.1, output.PredictedPosition)) * 100;
|
||||
double winProbabilityFactor = output.WinProbability * 100;
|
||||
double placeProbabilityFactor = output.PlaceProbability * 50;
|
||||
|
||||
// Combina i fattori con pesi diversi
|
||||
double combinedRating = (baseRating * 0.4) + (winProbabilityFactor * 0.4) + (placeProbabilityFactor * 0.2);
|
||||
|
||||
// Limita il valore tra 0 e 100
|
||||
return (int)Math.Min(100, Math.Max(0, combinedRating));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Metodo di utilità per convertire in modo sicuro i valori
|
||||
private static class SafeConvert
|
||||
{
|
||||
public static float ToSingle(object value, float defaultValue = 0)
|
||||
{
|
||||
if (value == null || value == DBNull.Value)
|
||||
return defaultValue;
|
||||
|
||||
try {
|
||||
float result = Convert.ToSingle(value);
|
||||
return float.IsNaN(result) || float.IsInfinity(result) ? defaultValue : result;
|
||||
}
|
||||
catch {
|
||||
return defaultValue;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -1,109 +0,0 @@
|
||||
using Microsoft.ML.Data;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.ML
|
||||
{
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Classe che rappresenta i dati di input per l'addestramento del modello ML.
|
||||
/// Contiene le feature selezionate dalle corse passate.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public class ModelInput
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Etichetta da prevedere: posizione finale (1 = vincitore, 2 = secondo posto, ecc.)
|
||||
[LoadColumn(0)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("FinishPosition")]
|
||||
public float FinishPosition { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Feature principali sul cavallo
|
||||
[LoadColumn(1)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("Age")]
|
||||
public float Age { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(2)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("HandicapRating")]
|
||||
public float HandicapRating { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(3)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("Weight")]
|
||||
public float Weight { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(4)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("WeightCarried")]
|
||||
public float WeightCarried { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(5)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("Barrier")]
|
||||
public float Barrier { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Statistiche di carriera
|
||||
[LoadColumn(6)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("CareerRuns")]
|
||||
public float CareerRuns { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(7)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("CareerWins")]
|
||||
public float CareerWins { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(8)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("CareerStrikeRate")]
|
||||
public float CareerStrikeRate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(9)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("CareerROI")]
|
||||
public float CareerROI { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Statistiche di pista
|
||||
[LoadColumn(10)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisTrackRuns")]
|
||||
public float ThisTrackRuns { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(11)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisTrackWins")]
|
||||
public float ThisTrackWins { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(12)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisTrackStrikeRate")]
|
||||
public float ThisTrackStrikeRate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(13)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisDistanceRuns")]
|
||||
public float ThisDistanceRuns { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(14)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisDistanceWins")]
|
||||
public float ThisDistanceWins { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(15)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("ThisDistanceStrikeRate")]
|
||||
public float ThisDistanceStrikeRate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Statistiche fantino
|
||||
[LoadColumn(16)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("JockeyLast100Wins")]
|
||||
public float JockeyLast100Wins { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(17)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("JockeyLast100StrikeRate")]
|
||||
public float JockeyLast100StrikeRate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Statistiche allenatore
|
||||
[LoadColumn(18)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("TrainerLast100Wins")]
|
||||
public float TrainerLast100Wins { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[LoadColumn(19)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("TrainerLast100StrikeRate")]
|
||||
public float TrainerLast100StrikeRate { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Quota iniziale (può essere predittiva)
|
||||
[LoadColumn(20)]
|
||||
[ColumnName("BestFixedOdds")]
|
||||
public float BestFixedOdds { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
// Cambia il tipo da int a float
|
||||
public float Rating1 { get; set; }
|
||||
public float Rating2 { get; set; }
|
||||
public float Rating3 { get; set; }
|
||||
public float Rating4 { get; set; }
|
||||
public float Rating5 { get; set; }
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -1,20 +0,0 @@
|
||||
using Microsoft.ML.Data;
|
||||
|
||||
namespace HorseRacingPredictor.Horses.ML
|
||||
{
|
||||
/// <summary>
|
||||
/// Classe che rappresenta l'output della previsione del modello ML.
|
||||
/// </summary>
|
||||
public class ModelOutput
|
||||
{
|
||||
// Previsione: il risultato della classificazione (1 = vincitore, 2 = secondo posto, ecc.)
|
||||
[ColumnName("Score")]
|
||||
public float PredictedPosition { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[NoColumn] // Indica che questa proprietà non esiste nei dati
|
||||
public float WinProbability { get; set; }
|
||||
|
||||
[NoColumn] // Indica che questa proprietà non esiste nei dati
|
||||
public float PlaceProbability { get; set; }
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -1,88 +0,0 @@
|
||||
/****** Object: StoredProcedure [dbo].[GetFavoriteHorses] Script Date: 17/07/2025 09:09:35 ******/
|
||||
SET ANSI_NULLS ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
SET QUOTED_IDENTIFIER ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
ALTER PROCEDURE [dbo].[GetFavoriteHorses]
|
||||
@Date DATETIME = NULL,
|
||||
@Meeting NVARCHAR(100) = NULL,
|
||||
@RaceNumber INT = NULL,
|
||||
@TopN INT = 3,
|
||||
@Weight_HandicapRating DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_CareerWins DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_CareerStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_BestFixedOdds DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_Age DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_CareerPlacings DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_LastStartFinishPosition DECIMAL(10,2) = 1,
|
||||
@Weight_WeightCarried DECIMAL(10,2) = 1
|
||||
AS
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET NOCOUNT ON;
|
||||
|
||||
-- Crea tabella temporanea per i risultati
|
||||
CREATE TABLE #Results (
|
||||
DataCorsa NVARCHAR(10),
|
||||
LuogoCorsa NVARCHAR(100),
|
||||
NumeroCorsa INT,
|
||||
NomeCavallo NVARCHAR(100),
|
||||
Punteggio DECIMAL(18,4),
|
||||
RisultatoFinale NVARCHAR(50),
|
||||
PosizioneArrivo INT,
|
||||
PrevistoVincente BIT
|
||||
);
|
||||
|
||||
WITH Scoring AS (
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
Data,
|
||||
Meeting,
|
||||
Race,
|
||||
HorseName,
|
||||
-- Calcolo del punteggio pesato con le nuove statistiche
|
||||
(
|
||||
ISNULL(HandicapRating,0) * @Weight_HandicapRating +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerWins,0) * @Weight_CareerWins +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_CareerStrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(JockeyLast100StrikeRate,0) * @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(TrainerLast100StrikeRate,0) * @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(BestFixedOdds,0) * @Weight_BestFixedOdds +
|
||||
ISNULL(Age,0) * @Weight_Age +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerPlacings,0) * @Weight_CareerPlacings +
|
||||
ISNULL(DryTrackStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(ThisTrackStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate +
|
||||
-- Per LastStartFinishPosition, valori più bassi sono migliori, quindi invertiamo il segno
|
||||
(CASE WHEN TRY_CAST(LastStartFinishPosition AS INT) > 0 THEN (1.0 / TRY_CAST(LastStartFinishPosition AS FLOAT)) ELSE 0 END) * @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition +
|
||||
ISNULL(WeightCarried,0) * @Weight_WeightCarried
|
||||
) AS Score,
|
||||
FinishResult
|
||||
FROM Races
|
||||
WHERE (FinishResult IS NOT NULL AND FinishResult <> '')
|
||||
),
|
||||
Ranked AS (
|
||||
SELECT *,
|
||||
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY Data, Meeting, Race ORDER BY Score DESC) AS RankByScore
|
||||
FROM Scoring
|
||||
)
|
||||
INSERT INTO #Results
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
CONVERT(VARCHAR(10), Data, 120),
|
||||
Meeting,
|
||||
Race,
|
||||
HorseName,
|
||||
Score,
|
||||
FinishResult,
|
||||
CASE WHEN ISNUMERIC(FinishResult) = 1 THEN CAST(FinishResult AS INT) ELSE NULL END,
|
||||
CASE WHEN RankByScore = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END
|
||||
FROM Ranked
|
||||
WHERE RankByScore = 1;
|
||||
|
||||
SELECT * FROM #Results;
|
||||
|
||||
DROP TABLE #Results;
|
||||
END
|
||||
@@ -1,27 +0,0 @@
|
||||
/****** Object: View [dbo].[GetValidHorses] Script Date: 17/07/2025 09:10:07 ******/
|
||||
SET ANSI_NULLS ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
SET QUOTED_IDENTIFIER ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
CREATE VIEW [dbo].[GetValidHorses]
|
||||
AS
|
||||
SELECT Data, Meeting, Race, Num, HorseName, Age, Gender, HandicapRating, CareerRuns, CareerWins, CareerStrikeRate, CareerROI, CareerPlacings, CareerPlaceStrikeRate, DryTrackRuns, DryTrackWins, DryTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
DryTrackROI, WetTrackRuns, WetTrackWins, WetTrackStrikeRate, WetTrackROI, AveragePrizeMoney, CareerPrizeMoney, BestFixedOdds, BetEasyOdds, Weight, WeightCarried, Barrier, PrizeMoney, ThisTrackRuns,
|
||||
ThisTrackWins, ThisTrackStrikeRate, ThisTrackROI, ThisTrackPlaces, ThisTrackPlaceStrikeRate, ThisDistanceRuns, ThisDistanceWins, ThisDistanceStrikeRate, ThisDistanceROI, ThisDistancePlaces,
|
||||
ThisDistancePlaceStrikeRate, ThisTrackDistanceRuns, ThisTrackDistanceWins, ThisTrackDistanceStrikeRate, ThisTrackDistanceROI, ThisTrackDistancePlaces, ThisTrackDistancePlaceStrikeRate, ThisConditionRuns,
|
||||
ThisConditionWins, ThisConditionStrikeRate, ThisConditionROI, ThisConditionPlaces, ThisConditionPlaceStrikeRate, Jockey, Apprentice, JockeyWeightClaim, JockeyLast100HorseEarnings, JockeyLast100AvgHorseEarnings,
|
||||
JockeyLast100Starts, JockeyLast100Wins, JockeyLast100StrikeRate, JockeyLast100ROI, JockeyLast100Places, JockeyLast100PlaceStrikeRate, Jockey12MonthHorseEarnings, Jockey12MonthAvgHorseEarnings,
|
||||
Jockey12MonthsStarts, Jockey12MonthsWins, Jockey12MonthsStrikeRate, Jockey12MonthsROI, Jockey12MonthsPlaces, Jockey12MonthsPlaceStrikeRate, JockeyThisSeasonHorseEarnings,
|
||||
JockeyThisSeasonAvgHorseEarnings, JockeyThisSeasonStarts, JockeyThisSeasonWins, JockeyThisSeasonStrikeRate, JockeyThisSeasonROI, JockeyThisSeasonPlaces, JockeyThisSeasonPlaceStrikeRate,
|
||||
JockeyLastSeasonHorseEarnings, JockeyLastSeasonAvgHorseEarnings, JockeyLastSeasonStarts, JockeyLastSeasonWins, JockeyLastSeasonStrikeRate, JockeyLastSeasonROI, JockeyLastSeasonPlaces,
|
||||
JockeyLastSeasonPlaceStrikeRate, Trainer, TrainerLast100HorseEarnings, TrainerLast100AvgHorseEarnings, TrainerLast100Starts, TrainerLast100Wins, TrainerLast100StrikeRate, TrainerLast100ROI, TrainerLast100Places,
|
||||
TrainerLast100PlaceStrikeRate, Trainer12MonthHorseEarnings, Trainer12MonthAvgHorseEarnings, Trainer12MonthsStarts, Trainer12MonthsWins, Trainer12MonthsStrikeRate, Trainer12MonthsROI, Trainer12MonthsPlaces,
|
||||
Trainer12MonthsPlaceStrikeRate, TrainerThisSeasonHorseEarnings, TrainerThisSeasonAvgHorseEarnings, TrainerThisSeasonStarts, TrainerThisSeasonWins, TrainerThisSeasonStrikeRate, TrainerThisSeasonROI,
|
||||
TrainerThisSeasonPlaces, TrainerThisSeasonPlaceStrikeRate, TrainerLastSeasonHorseEarnings, TrainerLastSeasonAvgHorseEarnings, TrainerLastSeasonStarts, TrainerLastSeasonWins, TrainerLastSeasonStrikeRate,
|
||||
TrainerLastSeasonROI, TrainerLastSeasonPlaces, TrainerLastSeasonPlaceStrikeRate, LastStartFinishPosition, LastStartMargin, LastStartDistance, LastStartDistanceChange, LastStartPrizeMoney, FinishResult
|
||||
FROM dbo.Races
|
||||
WHERE (FinishResult <> '') OR
|
||||
(FinishResult IS NOT NULL)
|
||||
GO
|
||||
@@ -1,20 +0,0 @@
|
||||
CREATE TABLE [dbo].[PredictionScanResults] (
|
||||
ScanId INT IDENTITY(1,1) PRIMARY KEY,
|
||||
SessionId UNIQUEIDENTIFIER NOT NULL,
|
||||
ScanDate DATETIME NOT NULL DEFAULT GETDATE(),
|
||||
Weight_HandicapRating DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_CareerWins DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_CareerStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_BestFixedOdds DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_Age DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_CareerPlacings DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_LastStartFinishPosition DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
Weight_WeightCarried DECIMAL(10,2) NOT NULL,
|
||||
TotalRaces INT NOT NULL,
|
||||
CorrectPredictions INT NOT NULL,
|
||||
WinPercentage DECIMAL(5,2) NOT NULL
|
||||
)
|
||||
@@ -1,152 +0,0 @@
|
||||
/****** Object: Table [dbo].[Races] Script Date: 16/07/2025 23:27:12 ******/
|
||||
SET ANSI_NULLS ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
SET QUOTED_IDENTIFIER ON
|
||||
GO
|
||||
|
||||
CREATE TABLE [dbo].[Races](
|
||||
[Data] [datetime] NOT NULL,
|
||||
[Meeting] [nvarchar](100) NOT NULL,
|
||||
[Race] [int] NOT NULL,
|
||||
[Num] [int] NOT NULL,
|
||||
[FileName] [nvarchar](255) NULL,
|
||||
[HorseName] [nvarchar](100) NULL,
|
||||
[Age] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Gender] [nvarchar](10) NULL,
|
||||
[HandicapRating] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[CareerRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[CareerWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[CareerStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[CareerROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[CareerPlacings] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[CareerPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[DryTrackRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[DryTrackWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[DryTrackStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[DryTrackROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[WetTrackRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[WetTrackWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[WetTrackStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[WetTrackROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[AveragePrizeMoney] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[CareerPrizeMoney] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[BestFixedOdds] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[BetEasyOdds] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Weight] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[WeightCarried] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Barrier] [nvarchar](10) NULL,
|
||||
[PrizeMoney] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistanceRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistanceWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistanceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistanceROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistancePlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisDistancePlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistanceRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistanceWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistanceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistanceROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistancePlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisTrackDistancePlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionRuns] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[ThisConditionPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey] [nvarchar](100) NULL,
|
||||
[Apprentice] [nvarchar](10) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyWeightClaim] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100HorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100AvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100Starts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100Wins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100StrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100ROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100Places] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLast100PlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Jockey12MonthsPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyThisSeasonPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyLastSeasonPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer] [nvarchar](100) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100HorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100AvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100Starts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100Wins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100StrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100ROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100Places] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLast100PlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[Trainer12MonthsPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerThisSeasonPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonAvgHorseEarnings] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonStarts] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonWins] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonROI] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonPlaces] [int] NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerLastSeasonPlaceStrikeRate] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[LastStartFinishPosition] [nvarchar](10) NULL,
|
||||
[LastStartMargin] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[LastStartDistance] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[LastStartDistanceChange] [decimal](10, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[LastStartPrizeMoney] [decimal](15, 2) NULL,
|
||||
[FormGuideUrl] [nvarchar](500) NULL,
|
||||
[HorseProfileUrl] [nvarchar](500) NULL,
|
||||
[JockeyProfileUrl] [nvarchar](500) NULL,
|
||||
[TrainerProfileUrl] [nvarchar](500) NULL,
|
||||
[FinishResult] [nvarchar](50) NULL,
|
||||
[Created] [datetime] NOT NULL,
|
||||
[Updated] [datetime] NOT NULL,
|
||||
CONSTRAINT [PK_Races] PRIMARY KEY CLUSTERED
|
||||
(
|
||||
[Data] ASC,
|
||||
[Meeting] ASC,
|
||||
[Race] ASC,
|
||||
[Num] ASC
|
||||
)WITH (PAD_INDEX = OFF, STATISTICS_NORECOMPUTE = OFF, IGNORE_DUP_KEY = OFF, ALLOW_ROW_LOCKS = ON, ALLOW_PAGE_LOCKS = ON, OPTIMIZE_FOR_SEQUENTIAL_KEY = OFF) ON [PRIMARY]
|
||||
) ON [PRIMARY]
|
||||
GO
|
||||
@@ -1,228 +0,0 @@
|
||||
ALTER PROCEDURE [dbo].[ScanFavoriteHorseWeights]
|
||||
AS
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET NOCOUNT ON;
|
||||
|
||||
DECLARE @MinValue INT = 1
|
||||
DECLARE @MaxValue INT = 3 -- Modifica per range più ampi
|
||||
DECLARE @SessionId UNIQUEIDENTIFIER = NEWID()
|
||||
DECLARE @ScanDate DATETIME = GETDATE()
|
||||
|
||||
-- Parametri
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_HandicapRating INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_CareerWins INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_CareerStrikeRate INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_BestFixedOdds INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_Age INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_CareerPlacings INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition INT
|
||||
DECLARE @Weight_WeightCarried INT
|
||||
|
||||
DECLARE @TotalRaces INT, @CorrectPredictions INT, @WinPercentage DECIMAL(5,2)
|
||||
DECLARE @CombinazioniTotali BIGINT
|
||||
DECLARE @CombinazioneCorrente BIGINT = 0
|
||||
|
||||
-- Carica tutti i cavalli validi in memoria
|
||||
IF OBJECT_ID('tempdb..#AllHorses') IS NOT NULL DROP TABLE #AllHorses
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
Data,
|
||||
Meeting,
|
||||
Race,
|
||||
HorseName,
|
||||
HandicapRating,
|
||||
CareerWins,
|
||||
CareerStrikeRate,
|
||||
JockeyLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
TrainerLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
BestFixedOdds,
|
||||
Age,
|
||||
CareerPlacings,
|
||||
DryTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
ThisTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
LastStartFinishPosition,
|
||||
WeightCarried,
|
||||
FinishResult
|
||||
INTO #AllHorses
|
||||
FROM Races
|
||||
WHERE (FinishResult IS NOT NULL AND FinishResult <> '')
|
||||
|
||||
-- Conta il numero di corse distinte
|
||||
SELECT @TotalRaces = COUNT(DISTINCT
|
||||
CONVERT(NVARCHAR(20), Data, 120) + '_' + Meeting + '_' + CAST(Race AS NVARCHAR(10))
|
||||
)
|
||||
FROM #AllHorses
|
||||
|
||||
-- Calcola il numero totale di combinazioni
|
||||
SET @CombinazioniTotali = POWER(@MaxValue - @MinValue + 1, 12)
|
||||
|
||||
-- Inizializza la sessione con un record "vuoto"
|
||||
INSERT INTO PredictionScanResults (
|
||||
SessionId, ScanDate,
|
||||
Weight_HandicapRating, Weight_CareerWins, Weight_CareerStrikeRate, Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate, Weight_BestFixedOdds, Weight_Age, Weight_CareerPlacings,
|
||||
Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate, Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate, Weight_LastStartFinishPosition, Weight_WeightCarried,
|
||||
TotalRaces, CorrectPredictions, WinPercentage
|
||||
) VALUES (
|
||||
@SessionId, @ScanDate,
|
||||
0, 0, 0, 0,
|
||||
0, 0, 0, 0,
|
||||
0, 0, 0, 0,
|
||||
0, 0, 0
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
SET @Weight_HandicapRating = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_HandicapRating <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerWins = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_CareerWins <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerStrikeRate = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_CareerStrikeRate <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_BestFixedOdds = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_BestFixedOdds <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_Age = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_Age <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerPlacings = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_CareerPlacings <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @Weight_WeightCarried = @MinValue
|
||||
WHILE @Weight_WeightCarried <= @MaxValue
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
SET @CombinazioneCorrente = @CombinazioneCorrente + 1
|
||||
|
||||
-- Calcolo in memoria: trova il cavallo con punteggio massimo per ogni corsa
|
||||
IF OBJECT_ID('tempdb..#Results') IS NOT NULL DROP TABLE #Results
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
Data,
|
||||
Meeting,
|
||||
Race,
|
||||
HorseName,
|
||||
(
|
||||
ISNULL(HandicapRating,0) * @Weight_HandicapRating +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerWins,0) * @Weight_CareerWins +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_CareerStrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(JockeyLast100StrikeRate,0) * @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(TrainerLast100StrikeRate,0) * @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(BestFixedOdds,0) * @Weight_BestFixedOdds +
|
||||
ISNULL(Age,0) * @Weight_Age +
|
||||
ISNULL(CareerPlacings,0) * @Weight_CareerPlacings +
|
||||
ISNULL(DryTrackStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate +
|
||||
ISNULL(ThisTrackStrikeRate,0) * @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate +
|
||||
(CASE WHEN TRY_CAST(LastStartFinishPosition AS INT) > 0 THEN (1.0 / TRY_CAST(LastStartFinishPosition AS FLOAT)) ELSE 0 END) * @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition +
|
||||
ISNULL(WeightCarried,0) * @Weight_WeightCarried
|
||||
) AS Score,
|
||||
FinishResult
|
||||
INTO #Results
|
||||
FROM #AllHorses
|
||||
|
||||
-- Seleziona il cavallo con punteggio massimo per ogni corsa
|
||||
;WITH Ranked AS (
|
||||
SELECT *,
|
||||
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY Data, Meeting, Race ORDER BY Score DESC) AS RankByScore
|
||||
FROM #Results
|
||||
)
|
||||
SELECT *
|
||||
INTO #TopResults
|
||||
FROM Ranked
|
||||
WHERE RankByScore = 1
|
||||
|
||||
-- Calcola le statistiche
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
@CorrectPredictions = SUM(CASE WHEN ISNUMERIC(FinishResult) = 1 AND CAST(FinishResult AS INT) = 1 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END)
|
||||
FROM #TopResults
|
||||
|
||||
-- @TotalRaces già calcolato all'inizio
|
||||
|
||||
IF @TotalRaces > 0
|
||||
SET @WinPercentage = CAST(@CorrectPredictions AS DECIMAL(5,2)) * 100.0 / @TotalRaces
|
||||
ELSE
|
||||
SET @WinPercentage = 0
|
||||
|
||||
-- Aggiorna solo se la percentuale è migliore
|
||||
IF EXISTS (
|
||||
SELECT 1 FROM PredictionScanResults
|
||||
WHERE SessionId = @SessionId
|
||||
AND WinPercentage < @WinPercentage
|
||||
)
|
||||
BEGIN
|
||||
UPDATE PredictionScanResults
|
||||
SET
|
||||
Weight_HandicapRating = @Weight_HandicapRating,
|
||||
Weight_CareerWins = @Weight_CareerWins,
|
||||
Weight_CareerStrikeRate = @Weight_CareerStrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate = @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate = @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_BestFixedOdds = @Weight_BestFixedOdds,
|
||||
Weight_Age = @Weight_Age,
|
||||
Weight_CareerPlacings = @Weight_CareerPlacings,
|
||||
Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate = @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate = @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate,
|
||||
Weight_LastStartFinishPosition = @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition,
|
||||
Weight_WeightCarried = @Weight_WeightCarried,
|
||||
TotalRaces = @TotalRaces,
|
||||
CorrectPredictions = @CorrectPredictions,
|
||||
WinPercentage = @WinPercentage
|
||||
WHERE SessionId = @SessionId
|
||||
END
|
||||
|
||||
-- Output avanzamento
|
||||
PRINT CONCAT(
|
||||
'Combinazione ', @CombinazioneCorrente, '/', @CombinazioniTotali,
|
||||
' (', CAST((@CombinazioneCorrente * 100.0 / @CombinazioniTotali) AS DECIMAL(5,2)), '%) - ',
|
||||
'Pesi: ', @Weight_HandicapRating, ',', @Weight_CareerWins, ',', @Weight_CareerStrikeRate, ',',
|
||||
@Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate, ',', @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate, ',', @Weight_BestFixedOdds, ',',
|
||||
@Weight_Age, ',', @Weight_CareerPlacings, ',', @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate, ',', @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate, ',',
|
||||
@Weight_LastStartFinishPosition, ',', @Weight_WeightCarried,
|
||||
' - Win%: ', @WinPercentage
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS #Results
|
||||
DROP TABLE IF EXISTS #TopResults
|
||||
|
||||
SET @Weight_WeightCarried = @Weight_WeightCarried + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition = @Weight_LastStartFinishPosition + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate = @Weight_ThisTrackStrikeRate + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate = @Weight_DryTrackStrikeRate + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerPlacings = @Weight_CareerPlacings + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_Age = @Weight_Age + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_BestFixedOdds = @Weight_BestFixedOdds + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate = @Weight_TrainerLast100StrikeRate + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate = @Weight_JockeyLast100StrikeRate + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerStrikeRate = @Weight_CareerStrikeRate + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_CareerWins = @Weight_CareerWins + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
SET @Weight_HandicapRating = @Weight_HandicapRating + 1
|
||||
END
|
||||
END
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user